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Keynes Florida 20 minutes ago

In macroeconomic terms, an increase in taxes followed by an equivalent increase in spending (and that therefore does not increase the deficit) increases the GDP. It is called “the balanced budget multiplier” (you can Google it!), BBM.

Conversely, a reduction in taxes followed by a reduction in spending reduces the GDP, and therefore increases unemployment.

In this particular case (repeal of the ACA), the reduction in taxes benefits higher income people who have a relatively low “marginal propensity to consume” (Google it!), MPC, and negatively affects lower income people, who have a relatively higher MPC. The net effect is that a reduction in taxes and an equal reduction in spending will decrease the GDP by an amount larger than the reduction in taxes. The effect on the unemployment rate will be larger than predicted by the BBM.

Will the repeal of the ACA be the trigger for the next recession/depression?

How long will it take for the country to be plunged into a depression? (a) two years (b) four years (c) eight years.

It will depend on how large are the tax and spending cuts.

GWB managed to do it in eight years, but he started with a stronger economy and made no significant spending cuts.

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